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The Kouk's Influencers

What is happening in the Australian economy? How important is China or the rest of the world to our well-being. Consumers are spending again, housing is booming despite the naysayers. The Aussie dollar has fallen sharply, will it keep going? What about interest rates, vital for big and small business and mortgage holders alike. What about the budget, does a surplus matter? What do cuts in government spending mean? All of these questions and more can be addressed in Stephen's presentation on cause and effect in economics.

This presentation can include analysis and information on the influence of:

speaking-influencers
  • Financial markets
  • Housing
  • Mining
  • Consumer spending
  • The Budget
  • Interest rates and inflation
  • The world economy
  • Jobs and the labour market
  • The effect of politics on your business segment

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The Kouk's Outlook

If you need a reliable, accurate, thought provoking and informed economic forecasting at both local and international levels, look no further. Informed by Stephen's exceptionally broad experience and background, his presentation ties together complex policy changes with current macroeconomic data to provide comprehensive insights into how unfolding economic trends will impact on you and your business.

This presentation can be tailored to include a wide range of topics including:

speaking-outlook
  • Where the economy is going
  • Which sectors are strong? Which are in decline?
  • What are the economic opportunities in the near term or over the next few years?
  • Given no one has perfect foresight, what are the main economic risks ahead?
  • Local and international forces
  • Commodity prices and China?

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Are you paying more or less in 2017?

Wed, 16 Aug 2017

This article first appeared on the Yahoo7 Finance at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1607453-054918623.html 

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Are you paying more or less in 2017?

When it comes to questions of cost of living, Australians are not all that good at identifying where their household budgets are being stretched or where they are making savings.

In its most recent survey, polling company Essential Research, asked voters whether “compared to two or three years ago, is your household paying more or less for the following” and thereafter it listed 10 items.  Since the end of 2014, two and a half years ago, the overall consumer price index has risen by 3.8 per cent, a modest overall gain over that time.

The respondents were spot on when it came to judging electricity and gas prices. A total of 84 per cent said that they were paying “a lot more or a little more” for their power. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, since the end of 2014, electricity prices have in fact risen 7.1 per cent.In terms of insurance costs, 69 per cent indicated that they were paying more, a figure confirmed by the ABS with an 11.6 per cent rise since the end of 2014.

For medical and dental costs, 63 per cent indicated they were paying more, with just 3 per cent saying they were paying less. The ABS data indicate that medical, dental and hospital costs have risen a substantial 16.9 per cent in just two and a half years.

These results are not surprising.

Consumers were, however, wide of the mark when it came to some other items.

RBA - all talk and no action

Fri, 11 Aug 2017

The RBA appeared before the House of Representatives Economics Committee today.

Here are some of the things its officials said:

Economic growth is likely to remain below trend for a couple of years.

Inflation is going to remains below the mid-point of its target till beyond the forecast horizon.

The unemployment rate is going to remain above the level associated with full-employment until at least the end of the forecast horizon.

Wages growth is likely to remain well below the long run average for many years, a point which will crimp household spending and bottom line GDP growth.

Yet, and here's the ZINGER

The next move in interest rates is likely to be up!

Whacko Jacko!