Speaking

The Kouk's Influencers

What is happening in the Australian economy? How important is China or the rest of the world to our well-being. Consumers are spending again, housing is booming despite the naysayers. The Aussie dollar has fallen sharply, will it keep going? What about interest rates, vital for big and small business and mortgage holders alike. What about the budget, does a surplus matter? What do cuts in government spending mean? All of these questions and more can be addressed in Stephen's presentation on cause and effect in economics.

This presentation can include analysis and information on the influence of:

speaking-influencers
  • Financial markets
  • Housing
  • Mining
  • Consumer spending
  • The Budget
  • Interest rates and inflation
  • The world economy
  • Jobs and the labour market
  • The effect of politics on your business segment

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The Kouk's Outlook

If you need a reliable, accurate, thought provoking and informed economic forecasting at both local and international levels, look no further. Informed by Stephen's exceptionally broad experience and background, his presentation ties together complex policy changes with current macroeconomic data to provide comprehensive insights into how unfolding economic trends will impact on you and your business.

This presentation can be tailored to include a wide range of topics including:

speaking-outlook
  • Where the economy is going
  • Which sectors are strong? Which are in decline?
  • What are the economic opportunities in the near term or over the next few years?
  • Given no one has perfect foresight, what are the main economic risks ahead?
  • Local and international forces
  • Commodity prices and China?

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Change of view on interest rates

Fri, 24 May 2019

Having been the only economist to correctly anticipate an interest rate cut from the RBA when close to 50bps of interest rate hikes were priced in to the market last year (See Bloomberg 17 August 2018), I have agonised over the exact months the cuts would be delivered and then how many rate cuts would be needed to reflate the economy.

Recently, I was of the view that the RBA would need to cut 100bps from now, to a level of 0.5%, but I did so with relatively low confidence. This is why I recommended all clients to close their long interest rate positions on 17 April 2019 (when the implied yields were 1.10% for the mid 2020 OIS; 1.35% on 3 year yields and the Aussie dollar was just over 0.7000 at the time).

Like in most good trades that were massively in the money, I left a little money on the table while I reassessed the outlook.

Since calling for interest rate cuts from the RBA, a lot of water has passed under the bridge, especially in the last few weeks.

Events mean I am changing my view on interest rates and have been placing / will be looking to implement new trades.

Watch out Australia: There's a flood of dismal economic news on the horizon

Wed, 01 May 2019

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-out-australia-theres-a-flood-of-dismal-economic-news-on-the-horizon-211110783.html

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Watch out Australia: There's a flood of dismal economic news on the horizon

The Australian economy is in trouble and Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party government need to come clean and acknowledge this and outline a framework how this period of economic funk is to be addressed if they win the 18 May election.

The Liberal Party is campaigning in the election on a “strong economy” and being “good economic managers”, bold claims that fly in the face of the latest score card for the economy.

That scorecard shows a flood of what is, frankly, disappointing or even dismal economic news. Australia is going through a very rare recession in per capita GDP terms and last week saw data showing zero inflation in the March quarter. Contribution to these indictors of economic funk is the fact that well over half a trillion dollars of householder wealth has been destroyed as house prices have tumbled.

Add to that the fact reported by the Australian Office of Financial management last week that gross government debt is $543 billion, almost double the level that the Coalition government inherited in September 2013, and the scorecard is looking very ratty indeed.

As the ad man used to say, “but wait, there’s more”.