How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

Thu, 07 Nov 2019  |  

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance website on 20 May 2019 at this link: 

How Labor lost the federal election SO badly

The Coalition did not win the election, Labor lost it.

The tally since 1993 for Labor is a devastating seven losses out of nine Federal elections. By the time of the next election in 2022, Labor will have been in Opposition for 23 of the last 29 years. Miserable.

The reasons for Labor’s 2019 election loss are much more than the common analysis that Labor’s policy agenda on tax reform was a big target that voters were not willing to embrace.

Where the Labor Party also capitulated and have for some time was in a broader discussion of the economy where it failed dismally to counter the Coalition’s claims about “a strong economy”.

In what should have been political manna from heaven for Labor, the latest economic data confirmed Australia to be in a per capita recession. This devastating economic scorecard for the Coalition government was rarely if ever mentioned by Labor leader Bill Shorten and his team during the election campaign.

This was an error.

If Labor spoke of the “per capita recession” as much as the Coalition mentioned a “strong economy”, voters would have had their economic and financial uncertainties and concerns confirmed by an elevated debate on the economy based on facts.

This parlous economic position could have been cited by Labor for its reform agenda.

Voters should have questioned and doubted the Coalition’s “strong economy” slogan. If Labor had campaigned on the per capita recession, it would have been in touch with people’s financial insecurity and made voters think twice about the economic management credentials of the government.

As part of this use of facts on the economy, Labor could have highlighted the productivity destroying collapse in business investment under the Liberal’s watch. As a share of GDP, business investment is at a 25 year low, back at the level prevailing in the early 1990s recession.

Campaigning on this fact could have undermined the perception that the economy and business does well under the Coalition. There is no record of anyone in the Labor leadership group mentioning this, even once.

While wages growth was a top tier issue in the election, Labor struggled to show how it would restore wages growth. This cost it dearly.

For Labor, there was a bit of fluffing around with restoring penalty rates and wage subsidies to childcare workers, but it completely and utterly ignored the proven driver of accelerating wages – growing the economy faster.

To tell voters how it could have helped spur economic growth and as a result deliver a pick up in wages, Labor could have spoken of reform to the Reserve Bank of Australia including a reinforced commitment to the existing 2 to 3 per cent inflation target as a means to achieve this. Further, it could have also ramped up its plan for immediate income tax cuts and have them skewed heavily to low income earners who would spend that extra cash and kick start the economy.

These are relatable issues and policy changes that could have seen Labor as the party of strong growth, with a simple and understandable plan for lower unemployment and higher wages growth.

Labor could have even embraced a target for the unemployment rate – something like 4 per cent for 2022 as a show of confidence in its ability to grow the economy and boost wages.

Part of a stronger growth plan could have also reiterated and highlighted enhanced economic linkages into Asia, which is still the fastest growing part of the global economy. Voters know how important Asia is to Australia and it would have been relatively easy for Labor to use this narrative to communicate with the electorate.

`The Coalition’s “strong economy” claims could have been further demolished if Labor campaigned on the current wealth destruction from the collapse in house prices. Prices are down more than 10 per cent, wiping off over half a trillion dollars from wealth.

They could have also spoken of the 1.8 million Australians currently unemployed or underemployed as a sign of a weak, not strong economy.

These are telling facts on the economy that Labor rarely raised in the campaign.

It cost them the election not to campaign heavily on the economy.

The problem with Labor’s willingness to campaign on the economy dates back to former leader Kim Beasley who in the early 2000s, distanced Labor from the massive reform success of the Hawke / Keating era. Labor was meek in the wake of a Coalition campaign at that time about interest rates and Labor’s role in the early 1990s recession.

Labor is still scared.

A large majority of voters judge the Coalition to be better managers of the economy than Labor. This is despite the facts of GDP, employment growth and wages show Labor to be at least as successful in managing the economy.

If Labor want to win the 2022 election, it needs its leader and economic ministers – whomever they are - to be mongrels on the economy. To take the data on the economy and when it is bad, call it out loud and clear. The gap in the electorate’s perception on which side is the better economic manager widened against Labor in the recent campaign.

If it had campaigned on the economy, the per capita recession, household wealth destruction and the 1.8 million Australians not working the number of hours they would wish, the election result might have been very different.

It all goes back to one of the best lessons in modern politics – It’s the economy, stupid!

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The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke

Tue, 07 Jan 2020

This article first appeared on the Yahoo Finance web site at this link:   


The misplaced objective of the government of delivering a surplus, come hell or high water, has gone up in smoke

For many people, the cost of the fires is immeasurable. 

Or irrelevant. 

They have lost loved ones, precious possessions, businesses and dreams and for these people, what lies ahead is bleak.

Life has changed forever.

As the fires continue to ravage through huge tracts of land, destroying yet more houses, more property, incinerating livestock herds, hundreds of millions of wildlife, birds and burning millions of hectares of forests, it is important to think about the plans for what lies ahead.

The rebuilding task will be huge.

Several thousands of houses, commercial buildings and infrastructure will require billions of dollars and thousands of workers to rebuild. Then there are the furniture and fittings for these buildings – carpets, fridges, washing machines, clothes, lounges, dining tables, TVs and the like will be purchased to restock.

Then there are the thousands of cars and other machinery and equipment that will need to be replaced. 

What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Thu, 02 Jan 2020

What's ahead for the Australian economy and markets in 2020

Happy New Year!

2020 will be a year where Australia’s annual GDP will exceed $2 trillion, our population will get very close to 26 million people and we will clock up 29 years with no recession.

It is also a year where the economy will be a dominant issue for policy makers, will drive what happens to interest rates, will help drive investment returns and will feed into the well-being of the Australian community. 

2020 kicks off with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, even though the labour market is likely to remain weak, with wages growth struggling to lift and inflation remaining below the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target. The Reserve Bank may have one more interest rate cut in its kit bag, but by year end, the market is likely to price in interest rate increases, albeit modestly.

The ASX, which had a great 2019 is set to be flatten out, in part driven by the change in the interest rate outlook, but it should get a boost from better news on housing and household spending.

In terms of the specifics, I have broken down the 2020 outlook into a range of categories and given a broad explanation on the issues underpinning the themes outlined.

GDP Growth

It’s a positive outlook. A pick-up in GDP growth from the current 1.7 per cent annual rate is unfolding, with the only real issue is the extent of the acceleration.