If the flow of punter’s money is any guide, Labor are in for a very rough time on Sublime-Saturday on 28 July when there are five by-elections around Australia.
In the three seats where the results are not a forgone conclusion, the flow of money on Liberal candidates over the last few days has been very strong.
The Liberal Party are now favourites to win Braddon and Longman and in Mayo, Liberal candidate Georgina Downer has firmed from $4.20 into $2.75.
If the punters are right, Sublime-Saturday would see Labor lose Braddon and Longman and could see Liberal’s sneak back in Mayo.
If so, it would be odds on that Prime Minister Turnbull would go to the polls as soon as possible, not only to take advantage of the by-election fallout, but, from a different angle, go before the housing market and the economy really hit the wall, probably in late 2018 or 2019.
Liberals $1.70 (was $2.25)
Labor $2.05 (was $1.65)
Liberals $2.75 (was $4.20)
Centre Alliance $1.35 (was $1.15)
Liberals $1.50 (was $2.00)
Labor $2.50 (was $1.85)