Economist

Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in Treasury, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist for two major banks and as economic advisor to the Prime Minister.

Stephen is currently Managing Director of Market Economics Pty Ltd, a firm he recently established in response to the growing need for independent and tailored macroeconomic analysis for business clients needing to convert economic data into financial market and policy risks. His work provides clients with unique insights into the macroeconomic policy debate.

Stephen offers more than many economists, with his unique background and knowledge. He has briefed Australia's Prime Minister on crucial economic policy issues, he has presented to over 35 central banks around the world, speaking to money managers who invest tens and hundreds of billions of dollars.

Stephen has also delivered keynote addresses to the small business sector, retail investors and even Year 12 HSC economics students. Clearly, he has a wonderful ability to be detailed, specific and complex on sophisticated aspects of the budget or financial markets but then can also explain what the daily run of economic news means for retail investors and small business owners.

This is why he is a popular talking head for the ABC, Sky TV, radio and other news programs. Listen out, he's makes the media several times each week. He can break down complex issues on the economy into easily understood commentary and analysis of the matter at hand.

THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Employment - the odd one out or is the economy booming?

Thu, 19 Oct 2017

I am reluctant to bag and slag the employment data, because it is all we have when looking at the health of the labour market. But there are a few quirky bits and bobs in the news of the wonderful run of job creation over the past year.

Employment rose by a remarkably strong 3.1 per cent in the year to September, a fabulous result.

But, and it is a big but, the results are at odds with just about every other indicator in the economy. EIther they are misleading or the employment data are misleading.

One way to check it to have a look at the economy the last time annual growth in employment was above 3 per cent. This takes us to the period around 2007 and into early 2008.

In 2007, annual real GDP growth was generally around 4 to 5 per cent, as you would expect with such jobs growth. The economy was on fire! In 2008, the CPI surged by over 4 per cent which is again as you would expect given the boom in employment. The RBA was hiking rates at an agressive pace, with the official cash rate hitting a stonking 7.25 per cent in 2008. Wow!

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What bubble? The financial sector is fighting fit

Tue, 17 Oct 2017

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/1897318-045821149.html

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What bubble? The financial sector is fighting fit

Australia’s banking sector is in peak health and the household sector is having few if any problems managing its debt.

This is the good news from the Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Report which effectively put the kybosh on the fear-mongers who continue to forecast a crisis in household debt, a crash in house prices and turmoil in the financial system and more specifically, the banks.

The key conclusion from the RBA was that “the financial system is in a strong position and its resilience to adverse shocks has increased over recent years.”

These are strong and direct words from the normally cautious RBA.

It also noted that the bank’s non-performing loans (bad debts in other words) “remain low” and bank profitability “is high”, which are the key indicators of financial stability and strength. The RBA went as far to say that “the banks also have ample access to a range of funding sources at a lower cost than a decade ago” which is fundamental to the functioning of the financial system. Nothing was presented that indicated current problems in the financial sector.

The RBA assessment can be tested from the markets, specifically bank share prices. Most evidently, bank share prices remain strong as the investment community continues to place its money where its mouth is when determining actual performance and even risks when allocating investment funds.

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