The Kouk's top 40 hits and misses

more Over the summer break, while fiddling through data bases, reading and just being interested in things, I unearthed a few quirky bits and pieces about the Australian economy, people, sport

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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

The RBA is failing on the most basic measures and it’s time it was held to account

Fri, 19 Oct 2018

This article first appeared on the Business Insider website at this link: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/rba-policy-failure-stephen-koukoulas-2018-10 

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The RBA is failing on the most basic measures and it’s time it was held to account

How’s this for an economic plan?

The RBA cuts the official cash rate to 0.5 per cent and on the back of that, the unemployment rate drops to 4.75 per cent on a sustained basis, underlying inflation hits the mid-point of the 2 to 3 per cent target range and annual wages growth lifts to 3.25 per cent.

This is what a range of credible economic models suggest would happen with such a simple and transparent monetary policy move from the RBA. And what’s more, it is free to implement!It would be, on all measures, a good economic outcome.

So why is the RBA not going to do it?

What kind of monetarist poltergeist has possessed them it is now a bad idea to try and hit their inflation target, put tens of thousands more Australians into work, and stoke a much-needed rise in wages growth? 

Why is the RBA the only central bank on the world seemingly obsessed with peripheral issues when the inflation target has been missed so comprehensively for so long?

The bond market is crashing - and it'll affect you

Mon, 08 Oct 2018

This article first appeared on the Yahoo 7 Finance website at this link: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-crashing-itll-affect-232320713.html 

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The bond market is crashing - and it'll affect you

There are two very important trends unfolding in financial markets.

One is the surge in government bond yields, the other is the free-fall of the Australian dollar.

To the bond market first.

In the US, bond yields – or interest rates – have jumped sharply since Donald Trump was elected President and he took the decision to lock in trillions of dollars of government borrowings to fund a range of tax cuts. When Trump was elected, the 10 year bond yield in the US was around 1.9 per cent, with the 2 year yield around 1.0 per cent. Now, with the US budget being trashed and inflation pressures building, those yields have jumped to around 3.2 and 2.9 per cent, respectively.

Part of this surge in yields is linked to the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in reaction to the extreme sugar hit to the economy from the extraordinary fiscal policy easing. It is also engaging in quantitative tightening, which is unwinding the money printing that was instigated in the wake of the banking crisis.

The other part of the jump in US yields is linked to expectations of an inflation surge as the economy is flooded with borrowed government money.