The Kouk's top 40 hits and misses

more Over the summer break, while fiddling through data bases, reading and just being interested in things, I unearthed a few quirky bits and pieces about the Australian economy, people, sport

The Kouk's Outlook

more If you need a reliable, accurate, thought provoking and informed economic forecasting at both local and international levels, look no further. Informed by Stephen's exceptionally broad experience and background, his

Economist

more Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in Treasury, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist
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THE LATEST FROM THE KOUK

Jobs and inflation point to interest rate cut

Fri, 28 Jul 2017

The big data points of the past week or so have confirmed the following economic facts.

The annual increase in underlying inflation is tracking at 1.8 per cent, locking in seven quarters where the inflation rate has been outside the RBA target range, and the unemployment rate remains high, at 5.6 per cent, which will inevitably lock in low inflaiton in future,

These two issues alone would suggest the need for monetary policy easing from the RBA. If the economic checklist is expanded to include below trend GDP growth, a surging Australian dollar and respective, but not great, performance from the global economy and the rate cut would be a slam dunk. Alas, the RBA is worried about financial stability, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne and is supremely confident about the outlook for the economy into 2018.

This means the RBA is not going to cut interest rates any time soon, even though a more progressive RBA would. 

The economy is at an inflection point and which was it goes over the next six months will determine whether the next move in official interest rates is up or down. For the hike scenrio to move to centre stage, the following events must unfold. 

Money for Life seminar – the steady path to wealth creation

Mon, 24 Jul 2017

 I am thrilled to be one of the speakers at The Money for Life event in Sydney on Saturday 7 October.

Book tickets via this link: https://www.quadrant2.net/

As the link suggests, it’s a seminar that is straight-talking, no nonsense financial information. It is great to see that there is no pushy marketing or get rich quick schemes, just a range of broad but in depth look at the things that have proven to be wealth enhancing strategies over many years. What is the best way to maximise your wealth both in the short term, but also, to have in place a framework of ideas to maximise the chances of building a decent financial nest egg over the longer run. 

Book now.